Election 09 Review
The election is over. [Insert massive sighs of relief and inner 'high-fives' here from a grateful nation - and Loudoun]. A little political, clinical 'post-mortem' is in order - focused on Loudoun.
Here's some conventional - and perhaps unconventional, depending on your view - wisdom about lessons learned, interesting trends, electoral conclusions, and such.
The GOP did well: I know, I know - tell us something we *don't* know. This one is pretty darn non-debatable. The question is, 'how well'?
Loudoun delivered wins for the GOP in all three statewide races, and in five-of-five races for the House of Delegates in the County. As noted by Loudoun County Republican Committee Chairman Glen Caroline, the GOP vote in Loudoun for the top three statewide races outperformed the results for the Republican ticket statewide.
Loudoun went 'red' for the first time in a statewide or national race since 2004. In four Senate, Gubernatorial, and a Presidential race since then, Loudoun went for the Dems. Let's face it, the GOP really turned out their posse - and the Indies too.
"The 'red tide' just came in, and Delegate candidates got caught in that tide," admitted Loudoun Democratic Party Chair Tim Buchholz.
He added: "We didn't get our message out as clearly…[Democrats] didn't find the right juice or the right message, or make the distinctions as well as we should have…and didn't adapt fast enough to what was going on out there."
(Here's a political junkies' tidbit: Governor-elect Bob McDonnell's margin of victory statewide was the largest Virginia has seen in a Governor's race since 1961. Wow.)
As Loudoun Goes, so Goes Virginia: As a corollary to the above, Loudoun has been hewing very closely to the statewide result in recent elections.
In every Gubernatorial, Presidential, and US Senate election since 1996 (that's 13 elections), Loudoun's vote has mirrored the statewide Virginia result -- except for only one: when Mark Early (R) topped Mark Warner (D) in Loudoun by about 3,500 votes in the 2001 Governor's race.
Electorally, moving forward, this places Loudoun in the same domain in state elections as Missouri does in terms of Presidential races. Since 1956, no Presidential candidate (except Barack Obama in 2008) has ever won the White House without carrying Missouri.
"There's a desire by both parties to say Loudoun is 'red' or 'blue' - but we are neither," adds Buchholz.
So, color Loudoun a deep [color unavailable - please check back later].
Loudoun Has a 100%, Grade 'A' Swing District: It's the 32nd, to be represented as of January by Tag Greason. He is the third person to represent it since 2005, and it has changed party hands twice, from GOP to Dem in 2005, retained by the Dems in 2007, and has now switched back to the GOP in 2009.
"Sleeper" Winners and Loser: Big winner here is Loudoun GOP Chair Caroline, who bounced back handily from the 2008 election cycle to deliver across-the-board gains for his party. Another winner: U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R), up for re-election next year as the area's marquee race to watch; he now has a pretty solid base of election gains to build on for his race.
Election '09 Loser? Governor and Democratic National Committee Chair Tim Kaine (D). Not only did he oversee the three Democrats running statewide lose by double-digits, but he saw the GOP padding its margin in the House of Delegates, and - as the top national Democrat (aside from Barack Obama) - he saw his own backyard get paved 'red'. Tim, that's Richmond on Line 1 for ya…
Incumbents Rule: A good rule of thumb: incumbents possess advantages over challengers: all the trappings of office, a solid name ID, and an inherent ability to outspend opponents.
That was true this year for incumbent Delegates Bob Marshall (R), Joe May (R), and Tom Rust (R). But did you notice one thing - the "R" after their names? That trumped all else. Just ask incumbent Delegates David Poisson (D) and Chuck Caputo (D), both two-term incumbents who were turfed-out Tuesday. Incumbency mattered not.
By the way - all three GOP incumbent Delegates increased their margins of victory over their 2007 results - with Rust doing so in a very electorally and demographically challenging District that gets 'bluer' each cycle.
Money Can't Buy Me Love: Here's another rule that got mixed reviews on Election Day - the more a campaign spends, the more likely they are to win.
That could be true in a race as close as the Tom Rust (R) vs. Stevens Miller (D) showdown. Miller stayed within 10 points on election night of a longtime incumbent who is well-liked in his District. Rust can owe some of his victory margin to a hefty campaign war chest and Gubernatorial coattails.
But, both challengers Tag Greason and Jim LeMunyon were well-outspent in their races for Delegate by the Democratic incumbents they faced. Guess what? Both wealthy Dem incumbents lost. Then there's 'poor' Bob Marshall, a longtime incumbent who got massively outspent by challenger John Bell (D), by a factor of six to one. Who won? Marshall - he was richer in votes at the polls.
Buchholz claims that "money didn't have a lot of impact overall", but admits that state parties "targeted" key races with an infusion of dollars.
LeMunyon raised his hand on this point, and admitted that the state GOP may have injected up to $125,000 in his race in mail expenditures on his behalf.
It's My Party and I'll Mail If I Want To: A huge point of discussion and debate in this election cycle was, in fact, mailings. Massive amounts of mailers came not just from the specific campaigns, but from state PACs (Political Action Committees) and state parties.
In the 32nd District race between Greason and Poisson, mailers became a lightning rod - and accusations of negative campaigning flew on all sides. A particularly egregious, pernicious and downright nasty mailer was sent by a Democratic PAC that viciously targeted Greason with tawdry past accusations - since dismissed.
On election night, as Greason claimed victory, he alluded to this, saying voters had "rejected the politics of personal destruction."
Buchholz made note of this, and actually said "he was quite ticked about it". He claims Poisson had "no way of controlling it or stopping it". Was there a backlash as a result, I asked him pointedly?
Buchholz said his "gut feeling" was "yes, I think there was a backlash against them [mailers]…I did not see that being beneficial at all for Dave [Poisson]".
Rust also weighed in here. He felt that some of the mailers and negative campaigning that was an offshoot of them "backfired" on his opponent, Miller. "When my character was questioned, the supportive emails and phone calls really came in," says Rust.
The Governor's Race Had Coattails: Yes, it did. Another 'duh' here. There's no question that McDonnell's margin of victory played out in local races, likely adding a few points to key showdowns.
Had the Governor's race been much tighter, you'd have seen a nail-biter Rust-Miller race and a cliffhanger LeMunyon-Caputo race. No question. But as for the Greason-Poisson race: as Greason noted to me Election Night, when you win (as he did) by 16 points, other factors played a major role. But the Republican Party of Virginia efforts to turn out GOP and Indie voters added some margins to key Delegate races.
Autism Speaks: It was rare and surprising to see a super-niche issue like this become so prominent in local races. But it did. Miller used it relentlessly against Rust, and lost. Poisson was hailed as a statewide leader on autism, and he lost.
That's not to say that voters don't care about autistic children and their families. Rubbish. What it likely says is that voters were far more focused on the large-scale, kitchen-table issues that affected them directly - such as taxes, education, transportation, and desiring both a 'change' and 'sending a message'. Autism was simply overshadowed.
Did the Election Get Nationalized? Like the Hertz car rental TV ads said, "Not exactly". Not like 1994 was for the GOP, or 2006 was for Democrats. But a patina of nationalized sheen existed.
Anecdotally, in talking to voters and the campaigns, most stated that they only heard about local and state issues; this is what primarily drove people to the polls. However, when pressed, many expressed worry and angst about Washington politics. It all seemed rather secondary, though.
But Delegate Bob Marshall claims in his door-to-door campaigning that "concerns were observations about what's going on in Washington with health care and deficits."
LeMunyon chimed in too: "A sizeable number [of voters] said they were sending a message to Washington."
Loudoun Democratic Chair Buchholz claims the GOP was "using the Democrats' playbook from the past four years - campaign on bread-and-butter issues continuously…focus on things that count for local constituents."
Loudoun GOP Chair Caroline doesn't share that view: "President Obama promised change in Virginia. The average Virginian hasn't seen it. So Virginians have initiated their own kind of change [in this election]".
But, of course, more of them were Republicans and Independents who likely had a chip on their shoulder about getting shellacked in the 2006 and 2008 elections (especially in Virginia), and who finally had a chance to blow off some steam after a year of health care debates, stimulus maneuverings, and anger over what many see as a creeping national deficit, national debt and gi-normous size of government at every level.
GOP's 'Social Insecurity': Like no other recent GOP statewide race in Virginia, social (or 'wedge' issues) were almost non-existent. No rantings over abortion, illegal immigration, gay marriage, or gun rights. Very much under the radar, or off the radar altogether.
It was noted by many campaigns and observers that voters simply didn't care to hear about them - opting instead for tried-and-true transportation, education, tax and spending, and small business and jobs. You can't find a reference to so-called social issues on LeMunyon's website. On Greason's website, you had to dig to find references to said issues…and it's a buried throw-away line about defending 'sanctity of life' and the Second Amendment.
Buchholz also adds that this avoidance of social issues by the GOP muddied the electoral waters for voters: "Distinctions between Democrats and Republicans were not drawn as tight," he claims. "No bright line in the sand" existed, according to him.
"We stuck to the core issues," adds Rust, and "didn't get diverted off on social issues." Undeniably, this avoidance helped the GOP campaigns for the three statewide offices, but also everyone stayed on message, state and local, on the same things.
Retail Politics Rock: In addition to 'message management' for the successful state and local GOP campaigns, many observers and candidates noted that upstart challengers Greason and LeMunyon were extremely active on the hustings - both entering the campaign with a goal of knocking on 10,000 doors. Both likely coming close to doing just that in the end.
It clearly had an impact. One example is how, on Election night, it was overheard amongst Greason's campaign workers that they had blown away their vote total goals in key precincts in the 32nd…especially where Greason had gone door to door. LeMunyon noted that, at the polls on Election day, many people approached him and told him they recalled seeing him at their front door in prior months.
The GOP's Marshall agrees: "Maintain a constant contact with the community - that's key for newly elected Republicans."
Miller Time?: Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller (D) had a better outcome at the polls than many expected in his race against veteran Rust. He was viewed by many as being upstart and aggressive, but also energetic and a workhorse.
This extra effort by Miller was likely a necessary action in an attempt to dispel the 'carpetbagger' moniker that was attributed to his having moved into the 86th District only nine months before election day, and having run for another office only just after having been elected a County Supervisor in November 2007.
But the fact remains that Miller has a full two years left in his term on the Board, and has room - and time - to make his mark and ponder his next move. What it will be is anyone's guess.
Paper, or Plastic? As in, paper ballots - or plastic computer touchscreens. This is a totally anecdotal and wholly unempirical , but a visit to a couple of precincts in Ashburn witnessed that voters were asking for paper ballots over the computer stations when given a choice by a ratio of 5:1 or 4:1. Electoral "PTSD" from the Presidential race in 2000 and Florida recount?
Also seen: gleaming new Dell laptops at the voter check-in tables instead of the old-fashioned thick registrar books of names and addresses. It appears that these are being gradually phased in precinct-by-precinct in Loudoun, and certainly made things move much more smoothly and efficiently from what I saw.
On both of the above, hope we hear from Loudoun's industrious General Registrar for elections, Judy Brown…
Now, Stand and Deliver (Solutions, Not Slogans): One thing I heard from both Democrats and Republicans after the election dust had settled and blown away like scattered dry fall leaves is this: newly elected Republicans had better produce, and not rest on newly minted laurels.
Supervisor Lori Waters relayed this message Election night. Waters said elected officials "have to be aware of what people care about, and provide solutions." Her advice is, "don't let it [the election wins] go to their heads." And she meant the GOP.
The pressure will be on them to show results and not partisanship. It's clear their efforts in Richmond will have to be solution-driven amongst all else. Voters are not only an impatient lot, but they can be fickle as well. Just go find and ask the Loudoun coordinators for the Barack Obama 2008 Presidential campaign.
LeMunyon echoes this: "When people see an 'R' next to our name, they need to be thinking it stands for 'results' not just 'Republican'".
The keys of power have been handed to a new GOP Delegation from Loudoun. But all things in life and nature are cyclical. None more so than politics.
So the one 'jewel in the crown' takeaway from this year's election? Loudoun Delegates should use their new keys wisely to unlock the logjam in Richmond to yield tangible results. Or voters in Loudoun will change the locks on the office door in Richmond in a flash…
Link to election results: